CREA lowers its 2026 home sales forecast

The revised outlook

CREA’s October 16 quarterly update projects 464,235 sales in 2027. It says that recovery depends on economic growth, renewed population growth and greater certainty about the path of borrowing costs.

The association expects 2026 annual average home prices to decline 3% in Ontario and 0.8% in British Columbia.

Reading a forecast alongside a mortgage decision

This outlook serves a different purpose from the already recorded September resale results. A projection can change as new information arrives. It is useful to keep the date, geography and measure attached to every figure you use.

For example, an annual provincial average is not an estimate of the change in one Toronto condo or Vancouver house. A Canada-wide sales total cannot establish demand for a particular Edmonton property. Local comparable sales and the details of the home still need their own assessment.

The Bank of Canada’s calendar lists October 28, 2026, for its next interest-rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report. That schedule confirms the timing; it does not establish the decision or the mortgage rate a lender will offer.

Make the assumptions in your plan visible

Our view is to use the outlook as context for a conversation, while keeping a household’s financing plan tied to its own numbers. A forecast of market activity cannot settle which mortgage structure fits someone’s circumstances.

• For a purchase, separate the property’s asking price, your available cash and a lender’s actual terms from any assumption about where prices might move.
• For a renewal, bring the mortgage balance, renewal date and any offers received. Ask the broker to show which comparisons depend on a future rate assumption.
• If you are comparing fixed and variable options, ask how payments and obligations could change under different scenarios, including one that differs from a published outlook.

Our fixed-versus-variable guide explains the tradeoffs to discuss. Homeowners approaching the end of a term can also use our mortgage renewal page to prepare their questions.